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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-03-05T23:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13716/-1
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-03-08T15:46Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

Initial speed: 550 km/s
Source location: S12E12
Solar wind speed: 390 km/s
Duration time: 0.5 hrs

Lead Time: 52.88 hour(s)
Difference: 31.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2018-03-07T18:37Z

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